Early December housing data show modest year-on-year sales gain

Existing-home sales in early-reporting local markets rose 2.5% in December from a year earlier on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, according to Calculated Risk, offering a firmer first reading after a 10.8% November decline in the same markets. Bill McBride of Calculated Risk said 2025 may still finish with the lowest number of existing-home sales since 1995, or close to it.

The preliminary December figures cover only several local markets that report early, McBride said Wednesday in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter. He said additional local market data have yet to be released, meaning the early sample may not fully match the eventual national reading.

McBride said that even if 2025 existing-home sales exceed the 2024 total, the two years would still stand as the weakest for sales since 1995. He also said sales for 2025 would be below any year recorded during the housing bust.

December existing-home sales mainly reflect contracts signed in October and November, rather than buyer decisions made in December. In a typical resale transaction, a signed contract precedes closing by several weeks, so the interest-rate backdrop during the contract period can be more relevant to the eventual monthly sales count than rates during the closing month.

Calculated Risk said mortgage rates averaged 6.25% in October and 6.24% in November. McBride said those rates were lower than the mortgage-rate environment associated with closed sales in November.

The calendar also affects the interpretation of the December comparison. Calculated Risk said December 2025 had 22 working days, compared with 21 in December 2024. Because non-seasonally adjusted data count activity as it occurred, an extra working day can lift the year-on-year comparison before statistical adjustments are applied.

McBride said the headline seasonally adjusted year-on-year change is therefore likely to be smaller than the non-seasonally adjusted increase reported by the early local markets. He added that other seasonal factors also affect the final adjusted figure.

The early improvement does not change McBride’s broader assessment that the existing-home sales market remained historically weak in 2025. The combination of low transaction volumes and mortgage rates above 6% has kept turnover constrained, based on the figures cited by Calculated Risk, even as December’s initial local data showed a year-on-year gain.

This story draws on original reporting from Calculated Risk.