Visa and Cerulli estimates split on scale of US inheritance wave

Two widely followed estimates of the coming US inheritance wave differ by tens of trillions of dollars, a gap that is sharpening debate among wealth managers, consumer companies and advisers preparing for generational shifts in assets. Visa Business and Economic Insights estimates baby boomers will pass $36tn to Gen X and millennial heirs over the next 20 years, while Cerulli Associates projects $106tn will go to heirs and spouses across generations by 2048.

The difference reflects methodology as much as outlook. Visa, a payments company, examined what portion of boomer wealth may reach ordinary consumers and then be spent. Cerulli, a financial research firm, measured a wider pool of transfers, including fortunes held by high-net-worth and ultra-wealthy households.

Visa started from an estimated $93tn in gross assets held by baby boomers. It then deducted $5tn in liabilities, including mortgage debt, and excluded $28tn held by the top 1% of households. Wayne Best, Visa’s chief economist, told CNBC the company removed that group because households with at least $12mn in wealth tend to spend a smaller share of their assets and buy different categories of goods and services than typical consumers.

Visa also reduced the pool for expected retirement spending, which it estimated at $16tn, citing longer life spans and higher spending by boomers than earlier generations. It further deducted $8tn for charity and taxes. After those adjustments, Visa arrived at $36tn in expected transfers from boomers, with $28tn likely to flow into savings and investments and $8tn into consumption, according to CNBC’s report on the study.

Best said Visa wanted to separate the size of headline wealth from the amount likely to become consumer spending. He told CNBC that $8tn in additional spending remained significant, but that trillion-dollar inheritance figures can be misunderstood if treated as immediately available consumption.

Cerulli’s estimate covers more ground. Chayce Horton, Cerulli’s associate director of wealth management, told CNBC that the firm assessed transfers from all wealth groups and age cohorts through 2048, rather than only boomers over two decades. Cerulli estimates total transferable wealth at $124tn, with about $18tn expected to go to charity, leaving $106tn for heirs and spouses.

Cerulli said it accounts for retirement spending, debt and taxes. Horton said roughly half of the more than $100tn expected to pass down will come from high-net-worth and ultra-wealthy families, making the transfer particularly relevant for wealth and asset managers.

The sequence of transfers also matters. Cerulli expects an initial shift of about $4tn to spouses, mainly women, before assets move on to children and other family members. Horton told CNBC that spouses are on average younger and tend to live longer, shaping the timing and client relationships involved.

By generation, Cerulli estimates Gen X will receive $14tn over the next decade, while millennials are projected to inherit the largest amount over time, at $46tn over the next 25 years. Horton said one in four wealth management clients now derives wealth from inheritance, a category that ranks behind business owners and founders but ahead of corporate executives.

For financial firms, the split between the Visa and Cerulli figures underscores a practical distinction: total wealth transferred is not the same as spendable cash. For consumer-facing businesses, the narrower spending estimate may matter most. For advisers and asset managers, the broader shift in ownership, especially across spouses and generations, remains central to client strategy.

This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.