September 2026 CPI forecast points to faster headline inflation
Economists expect annual US consumer inflation to reach 3.6% in September, with energy prices posing an upside risk ahead of the release.
By David L. Chen · Senior Columnist
· 2 min read
The September 2026 CPI forecast points to a pickup in US headline inflation, though the official reading had not yet been released. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones and reported by CNBC expect the consumer price index to rise 0.6% from August and 3.6% from a year earlier, compared with August's 3.4% annual rate.
The projected annual increase would put headline inflation further above the Federal Reserve's 2% objective. The forecast remains an estimate rather than a reported outcome, and other forecast providers showed a modestly wider range.
What is the September 2026 CPI forecast?
The Dow Jones survey reported by CNBC put September's monthly headline CPI gain at 0.6% and the annual rate at 3.6%. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's October 13 nowcast, which it describes as an estimate of current inflation, also projected a 0.53% monthly rise and 3.60% annual inflation.
Trading Economics listed a 3.7% consensus forecast for September's annual CPI rate, alongside its own 3.6% forecast. None of those figures was an official September result.
CPI tracks changes in the prices paid by consumers for a weighted basket of goods and services. Month-on-month figures compare prices with the preceding month; year-on-year figures compare them with the same month a year earlier. How inflation is measured depends on the basket and comparison period used, which is why the two rates can move differently.
Core inflation was expected to rise more slowly
CNBC reported that economists expected core CPI, which excludes food and energy, to increase 0.2% in September from the previous month and 2.5% from a year earlier. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast estimated a 0.20% monthly increase and a 2.39% annual rate.
The monthly core forecast was below the 0.3% rise recorded in August, according to Reuters and Trading Economics. August headline CPI increased 0.4% on the month, while annual inflation held at 3.4%, Reuters reported.
Energy prices are a risk to the forecast
Oil and other energy costs were identified as a potential source of a higher-than-expected headline figure. RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas told CNBC that oil-related prices created upside risk for September CPI.
CNBC reported that Brent crude rose more than 14% during September and about 42% over the third quarter, trading near $105 a barrel on October 13. Higher energy prices can lift the headline index directly through fuel costs, while core CPI removes food and energy to provide a measure less exposed to those categories' price swings.
In August, a 3.9% increase in gasoline prices accounted for more than one-third of the monthly CPI increase, Reuters reported. That prior result does not establish the composition of the unreleased September data.
This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.
