Kalshi traders see limited Nasdaq-100 gains after first-half rally

Kalshi traders were pricing roughly even odds that the Nasdaq-100 will close 2026 above 30,000, after the technology-heavy index rose about 18% in the year to date. The level is close to current trading: CNBC reported that the index was about 1% below 30,000 at midday Tuesday.

The pricing suggests participants on the prediction-market platform see a cooler second half for a benchmark that has already rallied sharply in 2026. CNBC’s market data showed the Nasdaq-100 at 29,173.017 at 5:15 p.m. EDT Tuesday, down 524.856 points, or 1.77%.

Kalshi contracts allow traders to buy “yes” or “no” positions tied to whether an event will occur. In this case, the market asks whether the Nasdaq-100 will end the year within specified point ranges. The contracts will settle using the index level on Dec. 31 as provided by Google Finance, according to CNBC.

Rally slows after June peak

The Nasdaq-100 first moved above 30,000 in late May, CNBC reported. Its strongest stretch this year followed the U.S. equity market’s March 30 lows, which CNBC tied to the Iran war. From that date through June 2, the index gained more than 33% as confidence in artificial-intelligence-linked stocks improved.

The benchmark tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq, giving it heavy exposure to large technology and growth shares. That concentration has amplified gains during periods when investors favored artificial intelligence, semiconductors and related software and infrastructure companies.

Kalshi pricing showed less conviction that the index will make a fresh move far above its current range. CNBC reported that a separate contract assigned about a 40% chance that the Nasdaq-100’s 2026 high will exceed 32,000. The index’s intraday high for the year so far was 30,762, reached on June 3.

Another Kalshi contract put the chance of the Nasdaq-100 rising above 33,000 by year-end at about 27%, according to CNBC.

UBS points to broader market leadership

A UBS note released Tuesday said the bank expects the wider equity rally to continue in the second half of 2026, while raising the possibility that technology may not remain the leading sector. Such a shift could matter for the Nasdaq-100 because of its technology-heavy composition.

“Following the strong rally in semiconductor stocks in the second quarter of this year, investors are increasingly looking beyond tech and toward other sectors as they reassess the next phase of the AI trade,” Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, UBS chief investment officer for the Americas, wrote in the note cited by CNBC.

Hoffmann-Burchardi added that UBS remains confident in the AI growth story, while also saying the “next leg of equity gains is likely to be marked by a broadening of market leadership.”

The Nasdaq-100 added SpaceX as its newest member on Tuesday, according to CNBC. CNBC also disclosed that it has a commercial relationship with Kalshi, including customer acquisition arrangements and a minority investment.

This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.