Finland’s Stubb says Ukraine has already denied Russia victory

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said Ukraine has already prevailed in its war against Russia by preserving its independence and sovereignty after more than four years of Moscow’s full-scale invasion. Speaking to CNBC at a NATO summit in Ankara on Tuesday, he said Kyiv still requires urgent allied help, particularly air defence systems.

Stubb contrasted Russia’s limited territorial gains with its much broader historical military reach, saying Moscow had advanced 60 kilometers during the active war in Ukraine, compared with 1,400 kilometers from Moscow to Berlin in World War II. “You have to ask yourself: ‘Who has won, who has lost?’ I say Ukraine has won,” he told CNBC.

The comments came as NATO leaders met in Turkey for talks focused on Ukraine’s future, the Russian threat to Europe and the pace at which European allies can assume more responsibility for their own security. The summit follows last year’s pledge by NATO members to lift defence spending from 2% to 5% of gross domestic product by 2035, a move made after years of U.S. pressure and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Stubb called that spending agreement “historic” and said the Ankara meeting would be assessed by whether governments could show progress in carrying it out. He described the shift as “burden shifting from the United States to Europe” and said it would mean “a stronger Europe in a stronger NATO.”

Finland shares a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia and joined NATO in 2023, abandoning decades of military non-alignment after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Stubb said European governments had understood Washington’s message that they should take more responsibility for defence in peacetime, crisis and war planning.

He also cautioned against complacency. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy needs air defence, Stubb said, adding that allies should help Ukraine “as much as possible.” Air defence systems are central to Kyiv’s ability to intercept missiles and drones before they strike cities, infrastructure and military sites.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, also speaking to CNBC, said Russia was “certainly not winning” and that Ukraine had achieved “spectacular successes.” He said Russia had failed to conduct the war as it expected at the start.

Kristersson framed the conflict as a test of endurance for Europe. He said Russia was counting on European governments to tire of the costs, lose focus or become intimidated, but argued that Europe was showing the opposite. He pointed to a 90 billion euro, or $103 billion, loan package for Ukraine as evidence of continued backing.

Sweden is also proceeding with plans to provide Ukraine with Saab-made Gripen fighter jets, Kristersson said. The plan includes newer aircraft for purchase and older models as support, which he said would strengthen Ukraine’s defence capability.

Like Finland, Sweden has recently moved into NATO, joining the alliance in 2024 after two centuries of military non-alignment. Kristersson said Nordic defence spending was being driven by Russian conduct rather than U.S. rhetoric, calling Russia “the defining threat” to the region.

The summit has also raised questions about whether a reduction in the U.S. military presence in Europe could occur faster than European governments can expand their defence industries and forces. Kristersson said the U.S. request for Europe to do more was reasonable and had been made by several administrations over many years, while adding that the transfer of responsibilities should be handled in an orderly and transparent way.

This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.