SpaceX short interest rises to 32% of float ahead of first earnings report

Short sellers have increased wagers against SpaceX to about 32% of the company’s publicly tradable shares, according to estimates from S3 Partners, lifting the notional value of bearish positions to roughly $25 billion. The rise comes before SpaceX’s first quarterly results as a listed company and as investors assess the potential effect of post-IPO lock-up expirations.

S3 estimated that about 206 million SpaceX shares are sold short, up from about 185 million shares, or 29% of the float, last week. About a month ago, short interest stood near 40 million shares, equivalent to roughly 5% to 7% of the float, according to CNBC’s report of S3 data.

Elon Musk responded to the increase in a post on X, writing that firms maintaining a large short position in SpaceX over time had a “very low” probability of survival. He also wrote that his earlier statement that SpaceX could be worth more than Earth if it achieved its goals was “obviously true.”

Short positions build before key events

Matthew Unterman, head of research at S3, told CNBC that short sellers were adding exposure before several expected events, including the company’s first earnings release as a public company and later lock-up expirations.

A short sale allows an investor to borrow shares and sell them in the market, aiming to buy them back later at a lower price and return them to the lender. If the share price rises instead, losses can grow because the investor must still repurchase the shares. A high level of short interest can also make a stock more sensitive to positive news if short sellers rush to close positions by buying shares.

SpaceX confirmed Tuesday that it plans to publish its first quarterly earnings report as a public company after U.S. markets close on Aug. 4. The release will give investors a fuller view of the company’s financial performance since its initial public offering.

The earnings report and lock-up schedule are drawing attention because both can alter the balance of supply and demand in the stock. Lock-up arrangements typically restrict insiders and early investors from selling shares for a set period after an IPO. When those restrictions expire, more stock can become available for trading, which investors may weigh alongside revenue, margins and management commentary.

Shares rebound but remain below IPO price

SpaceX shares rose about 7% on Tuesday and were on track to end a seven-session losing streak, according to CNBC. The stock traded around $128, still below its $135 IPO price after a post-listing decline.

CNBC reported that the move followed Macquarie analysts reiterating an outperform rating and encouraging investors to buy the recent weakness. The article cited the analysts’ call as part of the day’s market backdrop.

Investors remain divided over SpaceX’s valuation. Supporters point to the company’s position in launch services, the expansion of Starlink and its artificial intelligence plans, according to CNBC. Skeptics have questioned how much of that future growth is already priced into the shares.

The dispute has put SpaceX at the center of a broader post-IPO test: whether public-market investors will continue to assign a premium to its long-term growth prospects, or whether the stock will face pressure as earnings disclosures and potential new share supply bring more information into the market.

This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.