Gold heads for weekly gain as Fed rate-rise odds retreat

Gold advanced on Friday, with spot prices up 1.4% by 4:30 a.m. ET at about $4,182.28 an ounce, according to CNBC market data. The move put bullion on track for a 2.3% weekly rise, its first weekly gain since late May, as investors reduced bets on a September Federal Reserve rate increase.

Front-month U.S. gold futures were 1.5% higher intraday. The rebound came after a difficult first half for the metal, which CNBC said had posted its weakest quarter in 13 years in the three months to June and was trading about 22% below its January record of more than $5,300 an ounce.

The immediate catalyst was Thursday’s U.S. employment report. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, below the downwardly revised 129,000 increase in May and short of the 115,000 forecast in the Dow Jones consensus, according to figures cited by CNBC.

Rate markets adjusted after the jobs data. The CME FedWatch tool showed investors pricing a 53.5% probability that the Fed would raise rates by at least a quarter point in September, after holding policy steady in July. Before the payrolls release, the market-implied probability had been around 65%.

Gold has faced pressure this year from a stronger dollar, inflation concerns and a more restrictive stance among central banks following the U.S.-Iran war, CNBC reported. Those forces have dented demand after a record-breaking 2025 rally, when gold climbed 66% and silver rose 135% over the year.

Silver and platinum also rise

The gains extended across precious metals on Friday morning. Spot silver rose 2.9% to $62.77 an ounce, leaving it on course for a weekly gain of about 6.7%, while August silver futures added 3.5%.

Spot platinum traded 2.8% higher at $1,660.10. Palladium was up about 1% at $1,280.09.

Despite Friday’s move, gold and silver remained lower for 2026. CNBC reported that gold had fallen 3% so far this year, while silver had declined 12%. Trading became volatile early in the year, with silver futures recording their largest one-day drop since the 1980s at the end of January.

Strategists at OCBC said in a Friday note that they were “cautiously constructive” on gold after the payrolls data. “The softer-than-expected payrolls data helps reduce the hawkish tail risk,” they said. “Near term, we would shift the tone from cautious to cautiously constructive. Gold can extend the recovery if incoming US data continue to cap real yields and the USD.”

OCBC also warned that the backdrop remained mixed. The strategists said steady unemployment, restrictive Fed commentary and continuing inflation risks supported some tactical caution.

“A more durable recovery in gold needs real yields to ease more decisively, ETF/investor demand to stabilize and Fed to step back on its hawkish rhetoric,” OCBC said. “Technically, risks are skewed to the upside.”

The latest price action leaves bullion tied closely to incoming U.S. data and the policy signals that shape rate expectations, the dollar and real yields, according to OCBC’s analysis.

This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.