Kalshi traders price lower Coinbase second-quarter volumes than analysts

Kalshi traders are pricing a lower second-quarter trading-volume result for Coinbase than the Wall Street consensus, with the prediction market assigning only a 41% probability to volume exceeding $160 billion. Analysts tracked by FactSet expect $168.5 billion, CNBC reported, setting up a gap between market-implied odds and sell-side estimates before Coinbase reports earnings on July 30.

The figures matter because trading activity remains a core driver of revenue for the cryptocurrency exchange. Coinbase has already recorded volume declines in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, according to CNBC, as bitcoin prices weakened over the same period.

On Kalshi, traders can buy and sell contracts tied to whether Coinbase’s reported trading volume clears specified thresholds. The market price of a contract is commonly read as an implied probability, although it reflects trading conditions and participant views rather than a formal forecast. CNBC said the relevant Kalshi contract will be resolved using data from investment research platform Fiscal.ai.

As of the morning of July 20, Kalshi traders assigned a 99% probability that Coinbase’s second-quarter volume would top $150 billion. The implied odds fell to 41% for volume above $160 billion and 25% for volume above $170 billion, according to Kalshi data cited by CNBC.

Bitcoin weakness frames the earnings setup

Bitcoin fell about 12% during the second quarter, CNBC reported. The token’s pullback has weighed on expectations for Coinbase because lower crypto prices can reduce retail and institutional trading activity on exchanges, though the relationship can vary depending on volatility and investor positioning.

Coinbase’s share price has also tracked the weaker crypto backdrop. CNBC reported that the stock is down more than 55% since bitcoin reached its peak in October 2025, while bitcoin itself is off slightly less than 50% from that high.

If Coinbase reports another sequential decline in trading volume for the second quarter, it would be the company’s third consecutive quarterly fall in that metric. CNBC reported that total trading volume is also expected by prediction-market participants to fall below $200 billion for the first time since the third quarter of 2024.

Coinbase shares were quoted at $157.12, down 2.10%, with after-hours trading at $159.30, up 1.39%, according to CNBC market data shown Monday morning. Bitcoin was quoted higher by 0.45% in the same CNBC display.

Prediction markets have become a growing reference point for investors assessing event risk, including corporate results. They do not replace company filings or audited figures, and the final Coinbase result will depend on the trading volume the company reports for the quarter.

CNBC disclosed that it has a commercial relationship with Kalshi that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.

This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.