China Q2 GDP estimates show wider gap between official and alternative data
BOFIT says official Chinese growth slowed to 4.3% in Q2, while its alternative measure put expansion at 3.1%.
By David L. Chen · Senior Columnist
· 2 min read
China Q2 GDP estimates from BOFIT show a widening difference between Beijing’s official growth figures and alternative calculations of economic activity. According to BOFIT, official data put Chinese output growth at 4.3% year on year in the second quarter, below the government’s 4.5% to 5% target range for 2026, while BOFIT’s alternative estimate was 3.1%.
The official quarterly pace was 3.6% on an annualised basis, BOFIT said. Growth slowed from the first quarter, when official figures showed expansion of 5% year on year and 5.3% quarter on quarter at an annualised rate.
BOFIT attributed the deceleration in the official series to weaker household demand and lower fixed investment. Those two components matter because household consumption and investment spending are central channels through which domestic demand supports output, employment and corporate revenue.
What was China’s Q2 GDP growth?
BOFIT said China’s official second-quarter GDP growth was 4.3% from a year earlier. Its own alternative GDP calculation showed 3.1% growth, slightly below its 3.2% reading for the first quarter.
The gap between official and alternative measures is relevant because GDP is a broad aggregate and can be estimated using different inputs. Alternative measures seek to cross-check the official picture with other indicators of activity, though BOFIT did not detail the full construction of its estimate in the cited analysis.
BOFIT also said the range around its alternative estimate widened sharply in the second quarter. Its estimated band for alternative GDP growth ran from 1.2% to 4.7%, signalling greater uncertainty around the pace of expansion than in a single-point estimate.
Why do China GDP estimates differ?
Official GDP is the headline national accounts measure published by Chinese authorities. Alternative estimates use separate calculations to assess whether the official series is consistent with other economic signals, which can lead to lower or higher readings depending on the indicators used and their weights.
The San Francisco Federal Reserve’s China Cyclical Activity Tracker, known as China CAT, provides another external gauge. BOFIT noted that the tracker, which incorporates import data, has estimates only through the fourth quarter, and that it also points to official GDP growth running above alternative estimates.
The International Monetary Fund has moved its China forecasts higher, according to BOFIT. In its updated World Economic Outlook released earlier this month, the IMF raised its 2026 China growth projection by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6% and lifted its 2027 forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%.
The official second-quarter reading therefore sits below China’s stated 2026 target range but close to the IMF’s updated full-year projection. BOFIT’s alternative estimate, by contrast, indicates a softer underlying pace and a wider margin of uncertainty around China’s reported expansion.
This story draws on original reporting from Econbrowser.
