Iranian oil tankers leave Hormuz blockade as shipping firms await deal

Three Iran-linked tankers carrying almost 5mn barrels of crude have passed out of the U.S. Navy blockade area around the Strait of Hormuz, according to shipping data cited by Kpler. The movements mark the first outbound Iranian crude shipment of this kind in two months and come as shipowners assess whether a planned U.S.-Iran agreement will reopen one of the world’s most important energy corridors.

Kpler said two supertankers, the Diona and Hero 2, carried a combined 3.8mn barrels of Iranian crude through the blockade perimeter. Both vessels are owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company and are under U.S. sanctions, according to U.S. sanctions records cited in the report. Kpler said a third Iran-linked tanker carrying 1mn barrels of Iranian crude crossed the blockade line on Wednesday.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward, said the tankers’ apparent departure suggested other vessels involved in Iranian trade were preparing to restart operations. The data are being watched closely by tanker owners, insurers and energy traders because Hormuz handled about a fifth of global oil flows before the conflict.

Deal expected in Geneva

The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on Monday to end a nearly four-month war, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled for Friday in Geneva. The terms have not been disclosed. Reuters reported that the pact is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and waive sanctions on Iranian oil sales.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that Washington would allow Tehran to begin selling oil and fuel immediately after the agreement is signed, in exchange for Iranian commitments to curb its nuclear programme.

The strait has been effectively closed during the conflict. The U.S. Navy blockaded Iranian ports, while Iran targeted vessels linked to countries it regarded as adversaries, leaving hundreds of ships stranded and disrupting energy trade, according to the report.

Owners move carefully

Some shipowners have started repositioning vessels toward Gulf ports in expectation of restocking demand after months of elevated freight rates and war-risk insurance costs. Lloyd’s List Intelligence said the industry was reacting with “wary disbelief” rather than celebration.

Lloyd’s analysts said insurers were keeping high war-risk premiums in place and wanted solid evidence that the waterway would remain safe. They said in a Tuesday client note that a pause in fighting could release stranded mariners and support tanker and bulk markets, while the sector still viewed the situation as a fragile reprieve rather than a return to normal operations.

Some owners of very large crude carriers are seeking a first-mover advantage by sending ships toward the Middle East Gulf, according to Lloyd’s. Windward said on Wednesday that dozens of VLCCs were sailing from the South China Sea and across the Indian Ocean toward ports in the United Arab Emirates, where at least 30 ships were already at anchor.

Traffic through the strait is expected to remain limited while both blockades remain in place before the formal signing. Tim Wilkins, managing director of tanker association Intertanko, said the U.S. Navy had reminded the industry that “nothing has changed and will not until the agreement is signed.”

Kpler estimated that 118 laden tankers could leave the region within 15 days of a signed deal. It said that wave would likely be a one-time release of delayed shipments, rather than evidence of a durable return to pre-war traffic. Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, said most shipowners appeared to be waiting for further detail and would want assurance that Hormuz transits were both permitted and safe before sending vessels through the strait.

This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.