Goldman sees World Cup adding 40,000 jobs to June payrolls

Goldman Sachs estimates the World Cup may add about 40,000 jobs to the June U.S. payroll count, potentially making Thursday’s employment report stronger than the market consensus. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 115,000, compared with a gain of 172,000 in May.

Goldman’s economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels put their forecast for total nonfarm payroll growth at 140,000, according to a note cited by CNBC. That would still mark a slowdown from May, but it would be stronger than the consensus estimate and well above the 20,000 jobs lost in June 2025.

The bank’s view rests partly on data from Homebase, a payroll provider focused on small businesses. Goldman said the figures suggest World Cup activity has supported hiring in the cities hosting matches, even as the broader pace of hiring appears weaker in June.

Host-city hiring held up better

According to Goldman’s reading of Homebase data, employment in the 11 World Cup host cities was down 1.2% from a year earlier. Other cities recorded a larger 3.5% decline, the bank said.

Goldman also cited a 9.5% increase in hospitality hiring in the Homebase data. The firm said the tournament’s hiring effect is likely to be concentrated in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and trade and transportation.

The mechanism is direct. Large sporting events tend to increase demand for venue staffing, hotels, restaurants, transportation, security, business services and related operations. Those temporary or event-linked jobs can enter the monthly payroll survey if they are active during the relevant reporting period.

The nonfarm payrolls report measures the number of paid employees on business and government payrolls, excluding categories such as farm workers and some household employment. The initial estimate is released monthly and can later be revised as more complete employer data arrive.

Revisions remain a risk

Goldman said the first June payroll estimate has shown a tendency to come in higher than later readings in recent years. The bank noted that the initial June count was revised lower in each of the past four years.

That history means the first print may not give the final view of June labor-market conditions. Investors, policymakers and employers typically look beyond the headline payroll number to revisions, sector detail and the broader trend in hiring.

For markets, the report will arrive as a test of whether event-related hiring can offset signs of slower job creation elsewhere. Goldman’s estimate suggests the World Cup may lift the June total, while the Dow Jones consensus still points to a softer month than May.

This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.