US heavy-truck sales fell 32.5% year on year in December
BEA data cited by Calculated Risk showed heavy-truck sales at a 311,000 annualized rate in December, down from 336,000 in November.
By Ingrid Halvorsen · Staff Writer
· 2 min read
US heavy-truck sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 311,000 in December 2025, down 32.5% from 461,000 a year earlier, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data cited by Calculated Risk. The measure also declined from a 336,000 annualized pace in November, pointing to a sharp late-year slowdown in a category tied to freight, capital spending and commercial fleet demand.
Calculated Risk said sales of heavy trucks were down 15.3% in 2025 compared with annual sales in 2024. The blog, which presented a long-run series based on BEA figures going back to 1967, described the recent move as a collapse and noted that heavy-truck sales often weaken sharply before a recession.
The category covers trucks with a gross vehicle weight of more than 14,000 pounds, according to the definition cited by Calculated Risk. That includes large commercial vehicles used across freight, construction and other business activities, making the series a closely watched cyclical indicator for parts of the real economy.
What the annualized rate shows
The December figure is reported as a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate, or SAAR. That format adjusts the monthly data for regular seasonal patterns and expresses the result as the pace that would prevail over a full year if the monthly rate continued. It allows analysts to compare months without treating every seasonal swing as a change in underlying demand.
On that basis, December’s 311,000 pace was 25,000 below November’s 336,000 rate. The year-over-year gap was larger: the December 2025 rate was 150,000 below the December 2024 rate of 461,000. Calculated Risk also highlighted the fourth quarter as a period of pronounced weakness.
The signal from heavy-truck sales is relevant because companies tend to buy large vehicles when they have confidence in freight volumes, project pipelines and financing conditions. A downturn in orders or sales can reflect caution by fleet operators and other businesses, though the BEA series cited by Calculated Risk does not by itself identify the cause of the decline.
Calculated Risk’s recession observation is historical rather than a formal recession call. The blog said heavy-truck sales usually fall steeply ahead of recessions, but the data cited do not establish whether the latest decline will be followed by a broader economic contraction.
This story draws on original reporting from Calculated Risk.
